Be careful what you wish for…..

It’s highly likely that the first two names called out by Roger Goodell this Thursday are going to be Quarterbacks. It’s also not much surprise in which order they will be called – Jameis Winston is a lock for the Tampa Bay Buccs as the first overall pick, and whether it’s the Titans, or another ambitious suitor, Marcus Mariota is likely to be up next as Number 2.

However, if you’re a fan of the Buccs or the Titans (or the Chargers, Browns, Jets, Bears or Eagles for that matter), grabbing one of these young fellas is no slam dunk for success. There are more 1st round busts at the Quarterback position than any other. Here is a quick look back at the last 12 QBs to be picked in the 1st round:

Kicking ass:

  • Andrew Luck – 1st pick in 2012
  • Cam Newton – 1st pick in 2011
  • Teddy Bridgewater – 32nd pick in 2014

Solid starters:

  • Ryan Tannehill – 8th pick in 2012
  • Blake Bortles – 3rd pick in 2014

Amazingly still in work:

  • Brandon Weeden – 22nd pick in 2012
  • EJ Manuel – 16th pick in 2013
  • Christian Ponder – 12th pick in 2012
  • Blaine Gabbert – 10th pick in 2012

Out the league:

  • Jake Locker – 8th pick in 2011

Total mystery:

  • RG3 – 2nd pick in 2012
  • Johnny Manziel – 22nd pick in 2014

So, from this list, it’s safe to say that taking a top rated signal caller in the draft only has at best a 50% success rate. We’ll be watching the draft with excitement, but many will be watching the start of the new season with trepidation.

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